Because it’s never too early to look ahead, Public Policy Polling tested Republican Sen. George Voinovich’s strength in two hypothetical 2010 match-ups. Let’s check the score (5/17-18, likely voters):
Tim Ryan (D): 33
George Voinovich (R-inc): 33
Undecided: 34Betty Sutton (D): 32
George Voinovich (R-inc): 37
Undecided: 32
(MoE: ±3.6%)
If Voinovich’s term expired this year, it’s clear that he’d be in a Mike DeWine-style world of trouble. Ohioans seem to have little patience for the Senator, giving him an abysmal 31%/39% job approval/disapproval rating.
Tim Ryan has been frequently touted as a future statewide candidate for Democrats, but Betty Sutton is a newer name on the speculation scene. One potential candidate that PPP did not test is perennial loser and heiress Capri Cafaro. I highly doubt she would ever make it out of a statewide primary against a top-tier Democrat, though.
Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 50-39 in the poll.
(H/T: Andy Dufresne)
It is unfortunate that this race will not be on the ballot this year, but with Ted Strickland up in 2010, he could be immensely helpful to whatever nominee we put up, probably Tim Ryan, who is very ambitious and has been looking at moving up from the House.
What is striking about these numbers is that Voinovich has been around the Ohio political scene for a long time. He replaced Dennis Kucinich as mayor of Cleveland, he then became governor, and he replaced John Glenn in the Senate in 1998 when we did not put up a top challenger. So, he is not unknown to the state at all. That he only garners 33% against a less known Tim Ryan who has represented just the 17th District is very bad for the Senator’s chances.
While retirement is always possible, I have never heard rumblings that Voinovich is headed out. He is not that old — at least as Senators go — and has universal name recognition in the state. Then again, come 2010, a lot of older Senate Republicans may be running for the exits as they face a brutal, longterm minority status.
Should he retire, there are some strong Republicans who could run. Rob Portman is one, but wants to run for governor. Then again, if he is staring at a hugely popular Strickland, he may want to try for an open Senate seat (or perhaps, dare we say it, a Senate primary challenge). Another name is John Kasich, who used to be a Rep and chaired the Budget Committee (he currently hosts a show on Fox News, but I think it is on Saturday nights at 4:30 am, and also subs for O’Reilly once in a while). He has said he is thinking about a gubernatorial run as well.
Needless to say, this is a race to watch. And even though the poll was 55% Democrat and 33% Republican, I checked, and the breakdown it mirrors previous SUSA presidential polls of Ohio.
is pro-life right? I dont really care that much, the Senate will be sufficiently pro-choice. I know he’ll vote for our Supreme Court judges and not theirs (hopefully). But I guess in that regard, I’d prefer Sutton. But he’d be able to hold that seat for a long long long time. He’d be 37 when elected.
Voinovich is toast. I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if the Club For growth funds a conservative to challenge Voinovish considering how much repubs in OH hate him. Either way, the OH and KY Senate races are probably our top 2 pickups in 2010.
After watching the whuppin’ Sherrod Brown gave to Mike DeWine and seeing polls like these, I’d bet a dollar that Sen. Voinovich steps down rather than face the shame of defeat in 2010.
On the Democratic side, Betty Sutton and Tim Ryan would be great choices. Might I also suggest Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher? The Republicans will probably run Rob Portman if he declines to challenge Strickland or fails to get the VP nomination from McCain.
In another two years, there will be stronger challengers than Ryan or Sutton.
But Cafaro? Pluuezzzzee, no way. Jeebus.
And no, George won’t retire.
Functionally, he’s in the minority already, He’s sort of a weird deficit hawk and verrryyy old school country club style GOPer. Out of sync with several of the disparate wings of the Ohio GOP. Somewhat harder to dislodge than DeWhine.
While I’m not sure whether the current Democratic lean both Ohio and nationwide will last, I will say that Sen. Voinovich is in trouble. I can put a name to that trouble, in fact, and it is Tom Noe.
While our last governor was the one who got to watch Coingate unfold before his eyes, it was Voinovich who initially put the man in charge of some of the Bureau of Workers’ Compensation funds. I don’t see a real good response for him from such an attack. His positives are that he put the foot down on the Bolton nomination, however loosely. His voting record is well in line with the current administration, though, and he’s only got a little over two years to fix that. Should Obama win, particularly in Ohio, I foresee a major shift in his voting record and/or his departure from politics.